The Return of Asia & the Multipolar World
เอเชียจะเป็นมหาอำนาจ 2050: เศรษฐกิจโลก GDP คาดการณ์ โดย Goldman Sachs
Summary
Goldman Sachs projects Asia returning as the world’s economic centre by 2050.
By 2030 four Asian economies are expected in the global top five, a shift arriving within a few years.
The talk notes Asia held that position before, which makes this a restoration rather than a first ascent.
Key points
Long-run projections rest on demographics
Over twenty-five years, the most predictable variable is the working-age population.
2030 is nearer than it sounds
A reordering that feels distant sits inside an ordinary corporate planning horizon.
The return does not lift every Asian country
A regional figure conceals the difference between those growing and those not.
Accepting the change is the hard part
Institutions and habits built during Western primacy have to adjust with it.