เขมรสองหน้า! จากพระยาละแวก ทิ้งจีน กอดอเมริกา ส่ง Trump ชิงโนเบล?

Summary

Cambodia nominating Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize surprised observers, given its reputation as China’s closest partner in ASEAN.

The argument is that this is a diplomatic strategy Cambodia has used all along, going back to King Norodom in the nineteenth century.

Then it was playing Siam against France to preserve independence — the same shape as what is visible now.

Key points

1. 01

   Playing both sides is a small state’s strategy

   Without your own strength, keeping two patrons at once is insurance.

2. 02

   The pattern goes back to the nineteenth century

   Read as historical continuity, the current moves become much easier to interpret.

3. 03

   The question is who pays for it

   One country’s balancing usually means a cost carried by a neighbour.

4. 04

   Thailand should read it as a pattern, not an event

   Treating it as a single betrayal guarantees being surprised again next time.