ไทย–เขมร หยุดยิงเพราะกลัวภาษีทรัมป์ แต่ภาษีทรัมป์ส่อผิดกฎหมายแล้ว และอาจต้องคืน 3 ล้านล้านบาท?
Summary
The Trump tariffs that frightened the world — and pushed Thailand and Cambodia into a late-night ceasefire — are now being ruled by several US courts to exceed the president’s authority.
The legal question is whether the IEEPA emergency statute was stretched beyond what Congress granted, and the Supreme Court may yet void the tariffs entirely.
Costco and other large companies worldwide have begun suing for refunds, driven by a deadline after which the collected duties become permanently the government’s, with the exposure running to roughly $90 billion.
The lesson for Thailand and Cambodia is that the 2025 ceasefire happened out of fear of trade retaliation, and Thailand may have backed down too quickly.
The open question is what strategy a small country should hold when great powers use tariffs, financial measures or sanctions as instruments of pressure.
Key points
A threat that worked may not have been lawful
The tariffs that stopped the fighting are being struck down in US courts.
IEEPA is the legal weak point
Using an emergency statute for general tariffs goes beyond what Congress granted.
Companies are suing on their own
Costco and other large firms are not waiting for governments; they are claiming refunds directly.
The refund exposure is around $90 billion
At that scale this is not a technical dispute.
Did Thailand retreat too fast?
Yielding immediately out of tariff fear may have surrendered leverage unnecessarily.
Assess the next threat before believing it
A small country should check how much of the claimed authority actually exists.