เศรษฐกิจไทยกำลังจะตายช้า ๆ จากโต 10% เหลือแค่ 2% มันเกิดอะไรขึ้น!?

Summary

In the golden age before the Tom Yum Kung crisis, Thailand grew 9.5% a year. Today it is 2.2%.

The talk works through what GDP measures, the golden age, the 1997 crisis, the years after, and then the factors behind the slowdown.

The comparison with neighbours now overtaking is what gives the figure its meaning.

Key points

1. 01

   The slowdown has run for thirty years

   This is not the result of any one crisis but a long accumulated trend.

2. 02

   2.2% is not enough to catch anyone

   At that rate a country growing at 6% overtakes you before long. That is pure arithmetic.

3. 03

   The neighbours do not share the problem

   If it were regional, everyone would slow together. That is not what happened.

4. 04

   The remedy has to be structural

   Short-term stimulus does not touch what has reduced the growth potential itself.