"เงินดอลลาร์" จะหมดอำนาจ? JP Morgan เตือน! โลกเริ่มลดบทบาท "ดอลลาร์" แล้ว
Summary
The report comes from the largest bank in America, which gives it a different weight from a warning by people who want it to happen.
The three signals cited: global dollar reserves at a twenty-year low, sustained foreign selling of US Treasuries, and Russia, China and India trading oil outside the dollar.
The consequences drawn are a weaker dollar over the long run, lower returns on US assets, and a possible gain for Asia from a more plural system.
Key points
The source is part of the argument
When an American bank issues the warning, the charge that it is an opposing agenda does not stick.
Reserves are a slow but clear indicator
Central banks do not rebalance on the news, so a falling dollar share reflects long-horizon decisions.
Oil is where it bites hardest
The petrodollar is a load-bearing pillar, so settlement outside the dollar hits the foundation.
A multi-currency world is not a dollar collapse
The likeliest outcome is a smaller dollar, not an absent one.