Trump เล่นเกมวัดใจระดับโลก! ทฤษฎีเกมที่เดิมพันอนาคตเศรษฐกิจโลก ไทยจะสู้หรือจะยอม?
Summary
What is happening is not only a trade war but a game of nerve, staked on the fear and psychology of leaders everywhere.
Game theory yields four scenarios: everyone negotiates, nobody backs down, some negotiate and some refuse, and the unexpected case.
The question for Thailand is which scenario it ends up in, and that depends on whether it has read the other side correctly.
Key points
In a game of chicken both sides can lose
Unlike a game with a guaranteed winner, this one has an outcome that is terrible for everyone if nobody yields.
Seeming unreasonable is an advantage
Here, credibility that you will not swerve is worth more than being reasonable.
A small country has fewer options than the theory suggests
The cost of holding is not the same for Thailand as for the United States, so the game is not symmetric.
Coalition changes the game but is hard to build
If small countries combined, the balance would shift — which is why these measures are usually negotiated one at a time.