Thai Macroeconomy: Currency, Rates & Household Debt
"กับดักรายได้ปานกลาง" เราจะไม่รวยไปกว่านี้แล้ว
Summary
The middle-income trap is the state where wages are too high to compete on price and productivity too low to compete on quality.
The talk covers causes, the economic and social consequences, and case studies of countries that got out.
The last section is what Thailand and its neighbours have attempted, and which lessons transfer.
Key points
The trap is produced by success, not failure
A country only reaches it after escaping poverty, which is exactly what makes it hard to leave.
The exit is productivity, not wages
Pushing wages back down is not available, politically or economically.
The countries that escaped share a pattern
Education, research and industrial upgrading pursued together is the recurring shape.
Demographics shortens the runway
The faster a society ages, the narrower the window for upgrading becomes.