The Return of Asia & the Multipolar World
จีนแซงหน้า สหรัฐร่วง เอเชียผงาด! 5 ปีจากนี้ โลกพลิกโฉม ไทยอยู่ตรงไหน?
Summary
IMF projections put China ahead of the United States within five years, with Asia returning to economic primacy after two centuries of Western dominance.
India, Japan and Indonesia enter the top five, BRICS runs close to the G7, and Vietnam climbs to twentieth in the world.
The remaining question is where Thailand sits in that rearrangement.
Key points
A projection is not a prophecy
IMF figures extend a trend line, and trends change when conditions do.
Vietnam is the case Thailand should watch
Comparable in size, different in direction — which makes it the most direct comparison available.
GDP rank is not wealth per person
China passes the US on population, while income per head remains far apart.
Thailand does not appear on the list
The quietest observation in the talk is that its name is absent from these projections.