ทำไมไทยและประเทศต่างๆ ไม่กล้ารวมตัวต้านภาษีทรัมป์? อธิบายด้วย ทฤษฎีเกม: Prisoner’s Dilemma

Summary

When Trump announced tariffs on dozens of countries, Thailand among them at 36%, the question was why countries in the same position did not combine.

In theory, combining is the best outcome available to all of them.

The explanation is the prisoner’s dilemma: what is individually best leads to what is collectively worst.

Key points

1. 01

   One-at-a-time negotiation is a design choice

   The stronger party gains from separating counterparties, which is why these measures are usually structured this way.

2. 02

   Whoever settles first gets a better short-run deal

   That incentive is what collapses the coalition before it forms.

3. 03

   What is missing is trust, not understanding

   Everyone knows combining is better. Nobody is confident the others will not quietly settle first.

4. 04

   A repeated game produces a different result

   With a long relationship, cooperation becomes possible — which is what multilateral frameworks are worth.