Trade Wars & Economic Statecraft
Trump บ้า หรืออัจฉริยะ? แผนลับหรือสงครามการค้าระดับโลก และไทยจะรอดไหม?
Summary
The tariffs cover China, Japan, Europe and Thailand alike, at the highest level in a hundred years.
The talk reads them through The Art of the Deal: open high, apply pressure, and keep a line of retreat open for yourself.
The question for Thailand is what position it enters the negotiation from — and whether it walks into the trap of retaliating too early.
Key points
The tariff is pressure, not the destination
Read as trade policy it makes little sense. Read as an opening price it has a recognisable shape.
The retreat was built in
The measures are structured to allow relaxation without loss of face, which is itself a signal of intent.
The risk is a counterparty who will not play
The strategy needs the other side to come to the table. If they do not, the cost lands on the one who opened.
Thailand is a taker here, not a player
Its size limits the options. What it can choose is timing and company.