US–China Technology Competition
ทรัมป์ 2.0 จะแพ้สงครามเทคโนโลยีกับจีน
Summary
China already leads in five fields — electric vehicles, batteries and solar above all — and is closing in seven more.
Restrictions dating from Trump 1.0 became a spur to self-reliance, visible in Huawei producing its own chips.
China has also built markets that do not require the United States, and now holds the largest share of world trade excluding the US.
Key points
Restriction accelerates what it means to stop
If you cannot buy it, the only option is to build it — the opposite of the measure’s intent.
Huawei is the clearest evidence
The company that was supposed to fail now makes its own chips, which invalidates the assumption behind the policy.
The market outside America is larger than assumed
If China can sell to the rest of the world, US leverage falls accordingly.
Thailand sits on both sides of the chain
As a consumer it gets cheaper goods; as a producer it has to choose a side.