เศรษฐกิจชาตินิยมกำลังกลับมา? สิ้นสุดการค้าเสรี? สิ้นสุด ESG? จีน-สหรัฐฯ นำโลกสู่คล้ายยุคล่าอาณานิคม?
Summary
The world economic order is shifting from free trade back to mercantilism — the belief that a country grows rich by exporting more than it imports.
That view treats international trade as a game with winners and losers, unlike the free-trade logic of mutual gain.
The accelerants are the US–China trade war, COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war, all of which pushed countries towards self-reliance and away from openness.
A side effect is the backlash against ESG: as competition intensifies, sustainability costs get treated as a burden.
The competition takes the form of trade and technology wars rather than the colonial conquest of the past.
Key points
Mercantilism is an old idea returning
It is not new — it is the pre-free-trade logic being put back to work.
From positive-sum to win-lose
The underlying assumption about trade has changed, so policy follows.
Three clear triggers
A trade war, a pandemic and a war in Europe turned supply chains into a security question.
ESG is a casualty of the new mood
When countries think competitively, sustainability costs get deprioritised.
New instruments, familiar logic
Tariffs and technology controls do the work that fleets and colonies once did.