Trade Wars & Economic Statecraft
ทรัมป์กำลังเล่นเกมอะไรกับไทย? วิเคราะห์เบื้องหลังภาษีทรัมป์ ของจริงหรือแผนลวง?
Summary
The letter announced 36% tariffs on all Thai goods, and it alarmed the country.
The argument is that this may not be the real objective but The Art of the Deal, which Trump wrote himself.
The techniques analysed: opening absurdly high to widen the bargaining range, and making the threat look credible enough to be believed.
Key points
The opening number is not the wanted number
Opening far above the target is standard in negotiation, and easy to misread as policy.
A threat has to be credible to work
Someone who has done it before threatens more effectively, which is capital Trump accumulated last time.
The alarm is part of the mechanism
Public reaction pressures a government to settle quickly, which is what the opener wants.
Reading the game correctly changes the response
If you know it is an opening price, conceding early gives away leverage for nothing.