เปิดโปง วิธีที่นักลงทุนเอาเปรียบญี่ปุ่น: Yen Carry Trade
Summary
A carry trade means borrowing in a low-interest currency to invest in a higher-yielding currency or asset.
The yen carry trade exploits Japan’s very low rates: investors borrow yen, convert to dollars, and invest elsewhere.
A side effect is the steady weakening of the yen, because the mechanism creates continuous selling pressure.
The fragility appears when monetary policy shifts unexpectedly and everyone must close positions at once — the carry trade unwind.
The unwind spreads to equities and cryptocurrency, because those are where the borrowed money went.
Key points
The profit comes from the rate spread, not from own capital
Investors put in almost nothing of their own, so positions can be very large.
Japan is the world’s cheap funding source
Decades of very low rates made the yen the borrowing currency of choice.
The mechanism weakens the yen by itself
More carry trade means a weaker yen, which makes the carry trade more profitable still.
The unwind is fast and simultaneous
When Japanese rates move, everyone has to buy yen back at roughly the same time.
The effects are not confined to currency markets
Equities and crypto fall too, because they were the destination of the same money.